Stochastic Simulation for Climate Change Risk Assessment and Management

The risk management paradigm has been proposed by a number of national and international research organisations as a useful framework for identifying robust decisions in the face of the inherent uncertainties associated with climate variability and anthropogenic climate change. The pursuance of risk management hinges on four fundamental considerations: a) a threshold for a particular system of interest; b) understanding of the response of that system to climate variability and/or change; c) understanding of the probabilities associated with different climate futures; d) one or more management options or strategies for reducing risk.